From Electoral Decentralisation to Administrative Capacity: a Functional Alignment Framework for Local Government Reform in Turkistan Region, Kazakhstan

Abstract

This article investigates the reasons why institutional reforms of local government in Kazakhstan have not consistently resulted in improvements in administrative performance. The analysis is based on a functional alignment approach that considers the relationship between legally assigned responsibilities, financial resources, staff competencies, digital administrative processes, public accountability and measurable results. The research combines institutional and legal analysis with data on budgetary equalisation for 2021–2025, nine semi-structured interviews with local government representatives, ten expert pairwise-comparison matrices and an electronic survey of 1,062 respondents conducted between 17 March and 1 April 2025. Qualitative fieldwork was conducted in Turkistan Region, while national fiscal data were used to situate the findings within the broader institutional context. Because the electronic survey did not collect information on respondents’ regions of residence, its results are interpreted as sample-specific associations rather than representative estimates for Turkistan Region or Kazakhstan as a whole. The findings show that equalisation subventions rose from KZT 2,279.7 billion in 2021 to KZT 5,774.3 billion in 2025. However, changes in the territorial composition of Kazakhstan after 2022 need to be considered when interpreting this increase. According to the survey results, 70.5% of respondents regarded akims as accountable to the population, while 76.6% reported being fully or partially satisfied with their performance. Satisfaction was strongly associated with perceived transparency, accountability and observable improvements in local conditions, although these relationships do not establish causal effects. Drawing on the empirical findings, the article proposes a diagnostic model comprising five interrelated dimensions: institutional arrangements, fiscal capacity, human resources, digital administration and citizen engagement. The model provides a basis for identifying administrative constraints, assessing professional competencies and developing measurable performance indicators. The findings suggest that improving local government effectiveness requires closer alignment between assigned responsibilities and the resources and administrative capacities available to fulfil them. Elections and the introduction of independent local budgets are important elements of decentralisation, but their implementation alone does not ensure improvements in administrative performance.

Keywords: local government; civil service reform; decentralisation; administrative capacity; public accountability; Kazakhstan